10:11 - 17.08.2026

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August 17, Fineko/abc.az. According to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics, global inflation risks remain elevated, though the severity of the oil shock has somewhat moderated.

The report highlights that the conflict involving Iran remains at a low-intensity equilibrium. While risks around the Strait of Hormuz persist, lack of immediate escalation signs has kept crude oil prices below $90 per barrel. Under Bloomberg Economics' baseline scenario, global inflation is projected to peak at around 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026.

In the U.S., cooling inflation and soft labor market data support a Fed pause on interest rates. Conversely, monetary tightening is expected to continue elsewhere, with the ECB on track for a September rate hike and the Bank of Japan likely following in October.

Rising rate expectations outside the U.S. continue to weigh heavily on global bond markets. Investors expect borrowing costs in Japan, Canada, the UK, and the Eurozone to rise faster than in the U.S., with two-thirds of the 32 swap markets tracked by Bloomberg pricing in interest rate increases.